And good afternoon, it is December twenty second, 2020, and as everybody knows and we don’t have to talk about, it has been probably the most unusual year we’ve ever experienced worldwide. And it’s finally coming to an end. And that’s the good news. However, it’ll probably be just as unusual on twenty, twenty one and we should be getting used to this type of new normal that we have today. There’s three parts to the message that I want to give you folks this afternoon. Part A is the message that I sent on… I think it was March 18th of 2020, to our coaching clients. And I was sending that message because I was trying to encourage them, that in spite of all the things that we were having happen at that moment, and was going to happen to us, we could all do better than ever if we choose to. Part B as my thoughts on what’s going to happen in 2021, I’ve got some predictions, if you can use that kind of a word. And then Part C, just a very brief, what can we do to assist you to achieve the goals you’ve set. So let’s look at, let’s look at Part A of my message. Our March 18,2020 message was titled to our coaching clients: The Advantages of the Market We’re Going to be Involved In; because it looked in March of this year that this was going to last a long time, although a lot of people, including myself, were hoping that it would be over in a few weeks to a few months.
And we’ve all seen that is not the case. So I’m going to go through a series of thoughts that I sent them. And let’s see if those thoughts, first of all, rang true. And second, if we need to look at them as part of 2021, the first thought I sent out was this: There’ll be less competition as most agents are very afraid and fearful of what’s going to happen this year. And that was certainly understandable. I mean, the fear of this pandemic naturally caused a lot of people to hide in their home and really not even come out of their homes for months on end. And I’m talking about real estate professionals. The second thing I told them is if you prospect you’ll be more efficient as more and more people are at home, will answer their phones. They want somebody to talk to you. By April 15th, the world will still shut down. And I and I told all of our clients, if you call people, they’re going to answer the phone just because they want to be in a conversation with somebody besides their family members or what’s worse…those single men and women in real Real Estate living by themselves.
So that was a very tough time. I said to them, third, you’ll get more referrals in 2020 than you’ve probably ever got before because the quality of the service you offer is so much better than most people can possibly offer. Great skills, great service would be more appreciated more now than ever. You know, the public is as nervous and afraid as all of us were. So therefore they would really appreciate not only the phone call, but they appreciate good quality service that you can offer. I said to them, fourth, your database will have more value than it’s ever had before because you’ll be one of the few, if not the only person talking to these people. You have to understand and we all now can look backwards and see not only what we did well, but the mistakes that we made as the year started to progress. And one of the mistakes was not talking to our database. That was a huge error. I’m glad our clients did not get involved in that. I wrote down next on this in March of this year, you can strengthen your skills faster than you ever have before because you’ll have more time working from home and because you’re working from home in most cases, and I’ll stress the words in most cases, you’ll have a lot less distractions.
And I also said to them, you can strengthen your mind set because there’s nothing better than the courage you’ll develop when you keep reading and planning each day more effectively. It was really interesting to watch and the people that were actively engaged in Real Estate participating every day. It was interesting to watch how they became stronger and stronger in their mindset as to what they could accomplish. And then, of course, the last advantage I pointed out in the early part of this year, interest rates are going to keep bringing buyers into the market. We saw that took place, which means if you lose property, you’re way ahead of the game. Now, we know March and April were tough months.
We were all adapting, trying to understand what was going to take place not only in Real Estate, but in all industries and businesses. Well, it was really about the first of May when a lot of the great real estate agents, like many of you watching this today, woke up to the fact that, listen, there are buyers, there are sellers, and no matter what the circumstances that take place in the world, there’s always going to be people that have to sell and people that have to buy in. Our job was to find them and talk to them.
So most of this came true. And I wrote down for not only our clients, but for many of you watching this video. I work on the fact that we deal with very efficient and smart people, whether they be our clients or somebody else’s clients. You’re smart, you’re efficient, you understand what’s going on. Therefore, the things that I said probably made sense at the time, although, again, I will stress it was a stressful year for everybody. The second part of our message today, these are some of the predictions I made the first week in December to all of our coaching clients. And I really feel strongly that those that understand them and take advantage of these thoughts will probably have their best year ever. If you’re going to be part of our Production Retreat in January, there’s two things that I’m going to do that are going to be a bonus for the attendees. One is I’ve asked one hundred of our best clients, what have you learned in the last couple of years and how does it apply to building your business? And I have a list I’ve put together that is fascinating. It’s probably now at point seventy of things we’ve learned that we can do to improve the quality of our business.
But also what I want to show you is when you take advantage of these thoughts, you’re going to have a lot of listings that a lot of sales period, and it can happen to all of us. So here’s my predictions:
Home prices will continue to rise. It’s the law of supply and demand. It comes into play. The fewer homes that are for sale, the more the sellers can demand. In terms of prices, buyers that have to buy are going to pay those prices. So home prices will continue to rise. Second, affordability for buyers will remain positive. And the reason for that is the low mortgage rates, not one hundred percent, but very much offset the rising prices. And that’s a very encouraging thing for all of you that have buyers you’re working with. I wrote down third that inventory challenges will continue, period. The best to the best of the best to the best will control the inventory. If you’ve seen my messages in the past, I’ve always said the same thing. There’s two types of agents. Those that list properties and those that don’t. And those two groups are very distinct and their work habits are very different. The agents, the list properties are the employers in the community. The agents that work with buyers are the employees. The employee cannot work without the employer being active. So I see a lot of challenges taking place, but the best of the best are going to keep listing more property. I wrote down next that technology will continue. People are saying technology is becoming better and better. Of course, it’s a huge factor and will continue to be a big factor. Everything from the virtual tools to virtual Listing Presentations, remote closings, all of this took place.
It will accelerate. And here’s what I want you to understand. If this pandemic starts getting wrapped up in the second and then third quarter of this year, the virtual side of our business will continue. The smart people, the smart agents, a lot of you have figured out how to make the virtual side of the business much more efficient for yourself, your buyers and sellers. I wrote down that the reason the inventory will remain low is because the cost of moving up for most sellers is too high. See the challenge that we faced last year in 2020 and we’ll face in 2021 is that a person wants to buy a property over here. Three hundred, five hundred, six hundred thousand. And that property has gone up in value consistently every year since early 2012, 2013. This year, of course, has jumped even more. The problem is the income sources, their employers, they’re not being paid as fast as the price of homes are going up. So their inventory is still going to remain low because some sellers that want to buy simply will not be able to afford to buy. I wrote down next, almost everything that is listed in 2021 is going to sell. But two factors come into play: The seller better have a realistic motivation and a fair price. And if they don’t, that property will expire. We’ll see more Expireds in 2021 than we saw in 2020.
I wrote down next, as far as predictions, interest rates, as I stated, will continue to be low. There’s really no logical reason to think they’re going to go up quickly during the calendar year 2021. I wrote down next we’re going to see…and this is a tough one, a lot more turnover among non producing agents and it’s going to happen at a faster pace. I’ve heard all these interesting quotes during this year. I heard a company down in the South, it’s a very substantial company. They said that 87 percent of the new licensees fail within the first year. I don’t know what NAR’s numbers are for 2020, but I will tell you, the last couple of years, we know that up to 50 percent of all the agents never do a single deal. The turnover is going to be a lot faster because we don’t have the skill set and the mindset to do the job. I wrote down next that the number of transactions being done nationwide will be very strong and will probably be static to 2020. But the revenue for brokers and agents will increase because the average sales price will increase. As long as we can control the activities, we should see more income per transaction. Here’s a big one: The number of teams in the industry will increase and the size of the teams will get bigger and bigger to the point, they’re almost like a real estate company versus a team because fewer and fewer agents know how to prospect or, will prospect;
And fewer and fewer companies are going to put a standard where you have to talk to people to make a living in real estate. The last thing I’m predicting for this year, and there’ll be more predictions as the year comes out, the gaps will widen between producers and non-producers. In the 70s, the 80s and 90s, we had 15 to 20 percent superstars. We had 15 to 20 percent constant turnover and we had 50 to 60 percent in the middle. Normal people, like so many of us, just making a good living. That’s changed. Today, we have a division right down the middle and that division is getting wider and wider. The gap between those that are listing and selling in big volume and those that are not is getting wider. It’s going to be harder and harder to make a living if you’re not a well skilled, strong minded Real Estate person. The third part of our message today is how can we assist you? And I’m not going to go into a long dissertation of what we do. I think most of you knew. But I will say to you, January 19-22, we’re going to be doing from 9-1pm each day for four days, Pacific Standard Time, a live streamed Production Retreat. We’ve been doing our Production Retreat for 30 years in January.
And I said to my company, we’re not going to miss doing one this January because it has to be done live streamed. Interesting. For those of you that saw our Superstar Retreat in September of this year, we actually had fourteen thousand people on day three watching that retreat and it was actually being broadcast in 33 countries. The message I give and please accept this, don’t think it’s egotistical. The message I give is basic. It’s critically important to build a foundation because every good business requires a strong foundation and all the magic formulas, the magic answers, I mean they’re always coming and going, but basic sales skills never go out of style. And you’ll get a kick out of this. I, I was told in an email a couple days ago once again, and I’ve been told this for the last five years, “Mike, your stuff is just old fashioned.” And I want to qualify that I’m old. I’ll be 76 in a couple of months, but having good skills never goes out of fashion. So the Production Retreat, four topics; First topic: 20 steps to make 2021the best year of your life. Topic number two: The formula for becoming a great listing agent – that is so critical today for all of us. The third topic, and this is a big change for Mike Ferry, is to talk how to work with buyers in this market ,selling homes faster than your competition, and the steps to make it happen.
And the last part of this retreat will be making the right choices in building 2021, our office eight hundred number is one 1-800-448-0647, 1-800-448-0647. Sounds like a TV commercial, doesn’t it? Or go to MikeFerry.com and get registered for four days. One hundred and fifty dollars for everybody to attend. If you’re an elite member, ask your broker. If they’re one of our only brokers, you will pay seventy five dollars to attend. First of all, we hope that you’ve had a very safe holiday season. We hope that everybody’s remained healthy among your family among your friends. We are so sorry to hear about some of the tragic stories we have heard this year with this crazy disease. Stay safe, follow the protocols, keep doing your job, but make sure that your buyers and sellers are also safe because you’re safe. We hope you had a very, very great holiday season. We’re looking forward to doing live seminars in 2021. Somebody asked me to predict when our first live seminar will be in 2021. We are pretty confident it will be the Superstar Retreat in July in Las Vegas, Nevada. We’ll look forward to seeing you. Have a great holiday if you’re seeing this today or tomorrow and if you’re watching it in January. We hope you had a great holiday. Thanks for watching.